With the ongoing concerns about climate change, understanding potential temperature rise under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios is crucial. A recent study in IgMin Research presents a straightforward approach to estimating global temperature increases from 2015 to 2100. Researcher Donald Rapp developed a model that simplifies the complex calculations used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to project future climate scenarios, focusing specifically on CO₂ emissions and their direct impact on global average temperature (GAT).
The study outlines five different emission scenarios, each representing possible levels of future CO₂ emissions, from highly optimistic to high-emission pathways. The model assumes that the temperature increase observed from the mid-1800s to 2015—largely attributed to rising CO₂ levels—will continue in a similar pattern throughout the 21st century. This assumption allows the calculation of annual CO₂ emissions, resulting CO₂ concentrations in the atmosphere, and corresponding temperature changes.
Key findings indicate that by 2100, even in the most optimistic scenario, atmospheric CO₂ concentrations could reach 500 ppm, potentially raising global temperatures by at least 2.1°C compared to the pre-industrial period. In more pessimistic scenarios, CO₂ concentrations could exceed 600 ppm, leading to a temperature increase of up to 3.4°C. These projections underscore the urgent need for sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate climate impacts.
This study emphasizes that while this model is a simplified approach, it aligns closely with the IPCC's findings, offering an accessible tool to estimate the impact of CO₂ emissions on future climate. It highlights the importance of continued global efforts to reduce emissions and stabilize atmospheric CO₂ levels to avoid severe temperature rises by century's end.
Full Text: https://www.igminresearch.com/articles/html/igmin218
PDF Link: igmin.link/p218
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